Monty Hall Problem in Java

I recently stumbled across something called the Monty Hall Problem. It is a basic probability problem that seems mind blowingly non-intuative to most people.

There are a lot of descriptions on this on the web, but basically the problem is this: Three closed doors are in front of a game show contestant. Behind two doors is a goat, and behind the remaining door is a car. The contestant selects one of the doors, then the host opens one of the other two doors that contains a goat. The contestant is asked if he wants to switch with the other closed door. What should the contestant do?

To most people it seems that the probablitiy is 50% either way. One door contains a car, and the other a goat, so it seems natural to assume that there is a 50/50 chance either way. But its not… if the user switches it is 66% more likely to have the car, than if he stays on his first selection.

Anyway, I couldn’t get my head around it so I wrote a little Java application that shows this phenonomena :


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